World: Harvest news are good from Mercosur, the EU, Russia, Ukraine this year

Harvest news are good from the Mercosur, the EU, Russia and Ukraine with minor heat damage. New crop conditions are fine in Argentina, but mixed in Australia, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their July report.

Russian and Ukrainian new crop grain offers are aggressive. EU price levels are much lower than last year, but uncompetitive vs. Black Sea offers to most grain import destinations.

Cold, rainy and stormy weather prevented timely planting of corn and soybeans in the U.S., speculation drove up markets till the acreage announcements of the USDA on June 28. The published corn acreage was 37.1 mln ha vs. expected 35.0 by US brokers and the IGC estimate of 32.4 mln ha. Markets crashed and did not recover to-date, although the department itself warned of further corrections to come. It looks as if numbers will change a few more times till harvest and leave a wide space for speculation, on acreage and yields.

On the agro-political side, Presidents Trump and Xi Ping agreed to resume negotiations for and end of their trade war, as already tried before. The announcement did nothing for world markets. China’s feed demand is reduced anyway by the loss of 1/3 of pig population since the outbreak of the ASF (African swine fever). Canada cannot export canola and pork to China and must be afraid for its grain shipments as well. The Chinese dumping investigation on Australian barley seems to be an endless affair.

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